Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
