🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

However the latest field is profoundly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still